Estimating risk to prevent damage: predicting and preventing coypu (Myocastor coypus) damage to transport infrastructure

BACKGROUND: A major impact of invasive Myocastor coypus in their introduction range is the collapse of riverbanks and nearby infrastructure, such as railway lines, due to the species’ burrowing activities. Because widespread implementation of preventive measures along watercourses is unfeasible, identifying susceptible areas is key to guide targeted management actions. This study used species–habitat models to: (i) identify local environmental features of the railway line/watercourse intersections (RLWIs) that make them particularly susceptible to coypu damage, and (ii) predict species occurrence probability over a wide lowland–hilly area of northern Italy (Lombardy) to identify priority areas for monitoring. RESULTS: Local-scale models identified that the RLWIs most susceptible to burrowing were those surrounded by arable land with interspersed hedgerows locally characterized by high herbaceous vegetation and clay soil. In urbanized areas and areas of intensive agriculture, coypu dens were generally located significantly closer to the railway, increasing the risk of collapse. A landscape-scale species distribution model showed that lowland areas along major rivers and lake shores, and also agricultural areas with a dense minor hydrographic network, particularly in the southeast of the study area, are more likely to be occupied by coypu. CONCLUSION: Local-scale models showed that specific environmental characteristics increase the risk of burrowing near RLWIs. The landscape-scale model allowed us to predict which areas require thorough monitoring of RLWIs to search for such local characteristics to implement preventive management measures. The proposed model-based framework can be applied to any geographical context to predict and prevent coypu damage.