In this paper we propose a continuous time model for modeling the dynamics of a commodity price. In particular, we focus on the term structure of future prices under the assumption that the underlying asset price follows an exponential CARMA(p, q) model where the driving noise is a Time Changed Brownian motion. The use of CARMA models well suits a market where if a shock occurs its effect does not vanish gradually but it may induce a more complex dynamics for the asset. The obtained formula is strictly connected to the cumulant generating function of the subordinator process in the Time Changed Brownian Motion.

Mercuri, L., Perchiazzo, A., Rroji, E. (2021). Pricing of Futures with a CARMA(p, q) Model Driven by a Time Changed Brownian Motion. In M. Corazza, M. Gilli, C. Perna, C. Pizzi, M. Sibillo (a cura di), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance eMAF2020 (pp. 343-348). Springer [10.1007/978-3-030-78965-7_50].

Pricing of Futures with a CARMA(p, q) Model Driven by a Time Changed Brownian Motion

Rroji, Edit
Ultimo
2021

Abstract

In this paper we propose a continuous time model for modeling the dynamics of a commodity price. In particular, we focus on the term structure of future prices under the assumption that the underlying asset price follows an exponential CARMA(p, q) model where the driving noise is a Time Changed Brownian motion. The use of CARMA models well suits a market where if a shock occurs its effect does not vanish gradually but it may induce a more complex dynamics for the asset. The obtained formula is strictly connected to the cumulant generating function of the subordinator process in the Time Changed Brownian Motion.
Capitolo o saggio
CARMA; Futures; Pricing;
English
Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance eMAF2020
Corazza, M; Gilli, M; Perna, C; Pizzi, C; Sibillo, M
2021
9783030789640
Springer
343
348
Mercuri, L., Perchiazzo, A., Rroji, E. (2021). Pricing of Futures with a CARMA(p, q) Model Driven by a Time Changed Brownian Motion. In M. Corazza, M. Gilli, C. Perna, C. Pizzi, M. Sibillo (a cura di), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance eMAF2020 (pp. 343-348). Springer [10.1007/978-3-030-78965-7_50].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/460939
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