GIS analysis to apply theoretical Minimal Model on glacier flow line and to assess glacier response in climate change scenarios

evelopment of theoretical work about glacier dynamics has given rise at the construction of mathematical models to assess their response in climate scenarios. Glacier are sentinels of climate condition and the Project of interest NextData will favour new data production about the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections. The aim of our project is to develop theoretical models to understand, evaluate and reproduce glacier response in different climate scenarios. These models try to reduce the complexity of a glacier dynamics in a simple description based on physics laws. To investigate glacier evolution has been used Minimal Glacier Model: this models does not explicitly describe spatial distribution of ice thickness, basal water pressure, sliding velocity. The glacier evolution is calculated from an integrated continuity equation over the entire volume, based on the perfect plasticity principle. The state variable is glacier length. The analysis is composed also by theoretical equation to estimate the mean thickness of a glacier, that starts from the evaluation of the elevation range and slope. For setting minimal model the glacier geomorphology has been studied by Digital Elevation Model using a GIS. Through DEMs, it is possible reconstruct the evolution of glacier with a multitemporal analysis and draw the flow lines that follow the accumulation-ablation dynamic, on which the model is applied. During this work an algorithm were developed to extrapolate from DEMs all the features to run model. The model input data set are given by the mass balance and the Equilibrium Line Altitude. A theoretical fit is the transfer function between the climate forcing (winter precipitation and summer temperature) and the glacier behaviour. First the model is validated on historical real series of glacier parameter and dimension, followed by the run of this models to estimate the evolution of glacier in future scenarios.