Observing Scenarios for the Next Decade of Early Warning Detection of Binary Neutron Stars

We describe representative observing scenarios for early warning detection of binary neutron star mergers with the current generation of ground-based gravitational wave detectors as they approach design sensitivity. We incorporate recent estimates of the infrastructure latency and detector sensitivities to provide up-to-date predictions. We use Fisher analysis to approximate the associated localizations, and we directly compare to Bayestar to quantify biases inherited from this approach. In particular, we show that Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will detect and distribute ≲1 signal with signal-to-noise ratio greater than 15 before a merger in their fourth observing run provided they maintain a 70% duty cycle. This is consistent with previous early warning detection estimates. We estimate that 60% of all observations and 8% of those detectable 20 s before a merger will be localized to ≲100 deg2. If KAGRA is able to achieve a 25 Mpc horizon, 70% of these binary neutron stars will be localized to ≲100 deg2 by a merger. As the Aundha-Hanford-KAGRA-Livingston-Virgo network approaches design sensitivity over the next ∼10 yr, we expect one (six) early warning alerts to be distributed 60 (0) s before a merger. Although adding detectors to the Hanford-Livingston-Virgo network at design sensitivity impacts the detection rate at ≲50% level, it significantly improves localization prospects. Given uncertainties in sensitivities, participating detectors, and duty cycles, we consider 103 future detector configurations so electromagnetic observers can tailor preparations toward their preferred models.