A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of a robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of a common long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices can be explained by the similarity of the market design across Europe and by the same marginal generation technology. Its knowledge may also be relevant for long term hedging operations to be conducted even in countries where well established and liquid electricity derivatives markets are not present. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we also develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results.