Critical appraisal of the use of nuchal fold thickness measurements for the prediction of Down syndrome

Nuchal fold thickness is the best ultrasonographic predictor of fetal trisomy 21. However, the risk assigned on the basis of the commonly used threshold of nuchal fold thickness >/=6 mm does not take into consideration the significant associations between nuchal fold thickness and gestational age and between maternal age and Down syndrome. We propose a new method of calculating Down syndrome probability that takes into account both gestational age at examination and previously assessed probability of Down syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Nuchal fold thickness is the best ultrasonographic predictor of fetal trisomy 21. However, the risk assigned on the basis of the commonly used threshold of nuchal fold thickness ≥6 mm does not take into consideration the significant associations between nuchal fold thickness and gestational age and between maternal age and Down syndrome. We propose a new method of calculating Down syndrome probability that takes into account both gestational age at examination and previously assessed probability of Down syndrome. STUDY DESIGN: Nuchal fold thickness was measured at ultrasonographic examination at 14 to 22 weeks' gestation without previous knowledge of the fetal karyotype. Nuchal cystic hygromas were excluded from analysis. Statistical analyses included correlation, logistic regression to control for other ultrasonographic predictors of trisomy 21 and for maternal age, receiver operating characteristic curve, and likelihood ratios (defined as the ratio of the sensitivity to th...