The ratio-bias (RB) phenomenon is considered to provide systematic evidence of irrationality. When judging the probability of a low-probability event, many people judge it as less likely when it is expressed as a ratio of small numbers (e.g. 1-in-10) than when it is expressed as a ratio of large numbers (e.g. 10-in-100). Following a methodological approach, the phenomenon is increased by the experimental paradigm, which misleads participants regarding the aim of the task by inducing equal ratio neglect. Four experiments show that a reformulation of classical problems strongly decreases the bias.
Passerini, G., Macchi, L., Bagassi, M. (2012). A methodological approach to ratio bias. JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING, 7(5), 602-617.
A methodological approach to ratio bias
MACCHI, LAURA;BAGASSI, MARIA
2012
Abstract
The ratio-bias (RB) phenomenon is considered to provide systematic evidence of irrationality. When judging the probability of a low-probability event, many people judge it as less likely when it is expressed as a ratio of small numbers (e.g. 1-in-10) than when it is expressed as a ratio of large numbers (e.g. 10-in-100). Following a methodological approach, the phenomenon is increased by the experimental paradigm, which misleads participants regarding the aim of the task by inducing equal ratio neglect. Four experiments show that a reformulation of classical problems strongly decreases the bias.
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