Evaluation of Gully Erosion Susceptibility Using a Maximum Entropy Model in the Upper Mkhomazi River Basin in South Africa

Soil erosion is one of the most challenging environmental issues in the world, causing unsustainable soil loss every year. In South Africa, several episodes of gully erosion have been documented and clearly linked to the presence of Quaternary colluvial deposits on the Drakensberg Mountain footslopes. The aim of this study was to identify and assess the triggering factors of gully erosion in the upper Mkhomazi River basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We compiled a gully inventory map and applied remote sensing techniques as well as field surveys to validate the gully inventory. The gullies were subdivided into slope gullies and fluvial gullies. We derived susceptibility maps based on the spatial distribution of gully types to assess the most important driving factors. A stochastic modeling approach (MaxEnt) was applied, and the results showed two susceptibility maps within the spatial distribution of the gully erosion probability. To validate the MaxEnt model results, a subset of the existing inventory map was used. Additionally, by using areas with high susceptibilities, we were able to delineate previously unmapped colluvial deposits in the region. This predictive mapping tool can be applied to provide a theoretical basis for highlighting erosion-sensitive substrates to reduce the risk of expanding gully erosion.