En route to the North: modelling crested porcupine habitat suitability and dispersal flows across a highly anthropized area in northern Italy

The crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) underwent a rapid and widespread range expansion in Italy. Nowadays the species is moving towards the northernmost regions of the country and its occurrence is increasing in the highly anthropized Po Plain. Our objectives were to evaluate the suitability of the Po Plain for the species, as well as to identify dispersal corridors connecting the northern Apennines occurrence areas and the Prealps. We modelled the species home-range scale habitat suitability based on an ensemble modelling approach. Additionally, a habitat suitability prediction carried out at a finer scale was used to parametrize the landscape resistance, based on which we modelled the potential dispersal corridors for the species using a factorial least-cost path approach. The ensemble prediction estimated a potential occurrence of the crested porcupine in 27.4% of the study area. The species occurrence probability was mainly driven by the distribution of extensive cultivations, woodlands and shrublands, and water courses and by the annual mean temperature. Conversely, the movements of the species resulted mainly sustained by woodlands and shrublands and highly hindered by simple arable lands and rice paddies. The connectivity prediction showed that three main dispersal routes are likely to connect crested porcupine occurrence areas in the northern Apennines to currently unoccupied but highly suitable areas in the Prealps. The study allowed us to identify the areas in the Prealps with the highest probability to be colonized by the crested porcupine in the near future and provided important insights for the conservation of a strictly protected species in a human-dominated landscape.