We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained.

Colombo, R., Garavello, M., Marcellini, F., Rossi, E. (2020). An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS IN INDUSTRY, 10(1) [10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4].

An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic

Garavello M.;Rossi E.
2020

Abstract

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Age and Space Structured SIR Model; Covid-19 Modeling; Differential Equations in Epidemic Modeling;
English
8-ago-2020
2020
10
1
22
open
Colombo, R., Garavello, M., Marcellini, F., Rossi, E. (2020). An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS IN INDUSTRY, 10(1) [10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/294224
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