A quantitative structure-activity relationships approach to predict the toxicity of narcotic compounds to aquatic communities

Species may vary markedly in terms of their sensitivity to toxicants, and such variation can be described through the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) approach. Using SSD cumulative functions, it is possible to calculate the hazardous concentration for 5% of the species (HC5), namely the contaminant concentration at which 5% of species will be affected. HC5 is often utilised to derive the predicted no-effect concentration, or the concentration at which a chemical will likely have no toxic effects on the different species present in an ecosystem. However, the lack of sufficient ecotoxicological data frequently obstructs the derivation of SSD curves and consequently the HC5. In the last 30 years, quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models have been widely used to predict the toxicity of chemicals to single species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of extending the applicability domain of these models from single species to the community level by predicting the HC5 values for aquatic communities and bypassing the need to derive SSD curves. This approach's practical advantage is that it would allow information on the toxicity of contaminants to be obtained on a hierarchical scale (aquatic community), which is ecologically more relevant than on the scale of single species, without the need for a robust toxicity data set. In the first part of the study, two simple QSAR models were developed for narcotic and polar narcotic compounds. Then, the QSAR model developed for narcotic compounds was utilised to define the baseline toxicity for aquatic communities and to calculate the toxicity ratios for various specifically acting compounds (insecticides and herbicides).