Fifty Years of Italian Sampling and Economic Cycle History witnessed by the Business Confidence Survey on Manufacturing Sector

The globalization of economy requires a steadily increasing demand for statistical information. Unification political processes and the establishment of international institutions are among the events which have contributed to such increase during the last decades. The evolution of the Business Confidence Survey on manufacturing sector is presented starting from the preliminary European project for harmonised statistics launched in the late fifties of the last century. Survey changes are described, focusing in particular on the so-called confidence indicator. The continuing increase of statistical accuracy in sampling is recalled, from the initial purposive sample and controls up to the present state of the art. Specific attention is devoted to the role of administrative archives in the sampling plan. Emphasis is also given to the increasing use of computer simulation in assessing the validity of the estimates. The role of cyclical analysis is finally highlighted with regard to two aspects: (i) the business confidence has not a corresponding variable in the economic system - the validation can only be performed in comparison with correlated variables (e.g. IP, GDP); (ii) confidence shows forecasting capability for the economic system