Rock falls induced by earthquakes: a statistical approach

During September and October 1997 a seismic sequence of moderate magnitude struck the Umbria and Marche regions, central Italy. As a consequence of the main shocks several rock falls were triggered along the flanks of the Valnerina valley, an important canyon formed by the erosion of the Nera river on limestone formations. This landslide data set was used to explore the correlation existing among rock falls and several causal factors, like slope angle, geology and strong ground motion parameters. All the data have been digitised and georeferenced with the aid of a Geographic Information System in the form of digital thematic layers. The landslide inventory has been overlaid to the maps of causal factors, and the result arranged in order to create a data structure suitable to perform a multivariate statistics. A multiple regression allowed to formulate a predictive rule that can be used to produce a rock fall susceptibility map in case of an earthquake, in regions with similar geologic and geomorphologic characteristics. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.