Identifying population thresholds for flowering plant reproductive success: the marsh gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe) as a flagship species of humid meadows and heathland

The threshold below which population declines impact the effectiveness of plant reproduction is essential for the identification of populations that can no longer spontaneously recover following habitat management or restoration, below the minimum viable population (MVP) size. We hypothesized that risk of reproductive limitation can be evaluated from combined analysis of pollen activity, ovule fertilization and germination in the context of population demographics and fragmentation. The marsh gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe), a rare emblematic species of European heathland and fen, was investigated at the southern limit of its range in eighteen populations encompassing one to several hundred thousand individuals, spanning small fragments to extensive well-preserved areas. An index of habitat fragmentation was determined from GIS; field surveys determined the ratio of juvenile to reproductive age states; fluorescence microscopy of pistils determined, for each population, the proportion of flowers exhibiting active pollen tube growth. Analysis of seed lots determined the ovule fertilization rate and seed germination capacity. Some of the small populations occupying restricted habitat fragments showed high rates of pollination (100%) and ‘normal’ age state demographics. However, reproductive characters all exhibited exponential rise to maximum relationships with population size, indicating clear tipping points (for pollination, at a threshold of 7 reproductive adults, and for ovule fertilization rate and germination at 42 reproductive adults). Thus although small populations may set seed, exhibit a ‘normal’ age state structure, and may appear viable, reproductive effectiveness declines when population size falls below 42 generative individuals and < 7 is an indicator of strong limitation. Although many remnant populations of G. pneumonanthe are in the order of 50–150 individuals these should be not be considered as MVPs; they are on the brink of calamity