Multi-risk approach to the evaluation of natech events

AMRA, Research Centre in the field of the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk, is a permanent structure for the development of innovative methodologies applied to environmental issues. In the last years, AMRA has devoted significant efforts to develop a quantitative framework for multi-risk assessment to support the identification of effective strategies, economically viable, for the mitigation of impacts due to a wide range of risk sources and their possible interactions, considering scenarios of cascading effects. AMRA has participated and led several initiatives to promote theoretical developments of multi-risk approach and to apply this approach to cases of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (Natech). In particular, various research activities have been carried out by AMRA under projects funded by the European Commission (FP6-Na.Ra.S, FP7-CRISMA, FP7-STREST). Among the recent experiences of AMRA there is also the collaboration with the Italian Ministry of Economic Development DGS-UNMIG through the ARGO project (Analysis of natural and anthropoGenic Risks of Offshore platforms). The general objective of the project is twofold: to develop methodologies to analyse natural and human-induced risks of offshore platforms; to provide technical support for the development of recommendations arising from the foregoing analysis. In particular, ARGO aims at developing and applying a multi-risk approach to the analysis of Natech events on offshore installations for hydrocarbon extraction. This paper discusses the principles of the AMRA multi-risk methodology and its applications to industrial sites. After a brief overview of the major natural phenomena that can trigger Natech events, this work focuses on the conceptual framework underpinning the multi-risk analysis applied by AMRA to the probabilistic assessment of Natech events.